I usually am useless at this sort of thing. Even so, the game is (nearly) afoot!
White Jersey -- Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas)
Alternate: Der Panzerwagen (Tony Martin) (Team HTC - Columbia)
Andy Schleck is the safe choice, but Kreuziger showed at the Giro that he is ready to roll. He will ride to support Basso, and if Basso suffers, I can easily see Kreuziger becoming the Liquigas #1. He has the all-around skills and his recent performances (Paris-Nice, Tour de Suisse) indicate that he is on-form.
Crazy thought: instead of going for the Yellow, perhaps Liquigas could focus on the White and the Polkadot. I see Kreuziger helping to make the 2010 Grand Tour season a Liquigas affair.
Martin is a strong, tough competitor who showed his mettle in his near-win on Ventoux in the 2009 Tour. If he can get out of the first week unscathed, he will be a strong contender for
Maillot Blanc.
Polkadot Jersey -- Ivan Basso (Liquigas)
Alternate: Cadel Evans (BMC)
His Giro-winning performance was a testament to his quality.
Liquigas owned the Giro. They dominated. It was breathtaking.
Watching those final mountain stages was reminiscent of the Blue Train era when Lance dominated the Tour. I was rooting for Cadel Evans, but BMC had nothing to offer--and neither did any of the other contending teams.
Unfortunately, Liquigas doesn't have the personnel to handle the Tour's opening week. There are several strong teams who will battle it out on those historic flats. Basso also doesn't have the time trial skills of Contador, Armstrong, or Evans.
There are plenty of candidates to dominate the climbs, but I think Liquigas has the legs and the unity to take Basso to the top.
Cadel Evans is my second choice. I don't see BMC contending for the overall against Radio Shack, Astana, Saxo Bank, and others. But, Evans is a tenacious bastard who has stepped up, honoring the Rainbow Jersey. His uphill skills may just carry him into the dots.
Green Jersey - Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions)
Alternate: Spartacus (Fabian Cancellera) (Saxo Bank)
This jersey is about consistency. The wearer doesn't have to win everything, he has to
be there--win, place, or show. 2009 gave us Mark Cavendish's breakout year with six stage wins. 2010 will be Tyler Farrar's.
While Cavendish's train has lost several engines (the loss of George Hincapie will prove decisive in the long term), Farrar's has become more unified. Farrar has also shown himself to be strong on the cobbles, and is a likely contender to win
Stage 3--a legendary stage in the making.
The God of Thunder, Thor Hushovd, last year's Green Jersey winner, has had a star-crossed season. Illness, injury, and the absence of Heinrich Haussler relegate Hushovd to also-ran status. Hushovd and Cavendish will get their share of the spoils in the form of stage wins, but I pick Farrar for his consistency.
Cancellera has the biggest engine in the field, and he has proven to be a master of the cobbles. Given the
instability within the Saxo Bank squad, however, I don't know if he will have the support necessary to battle the other lead outs on a regular basis.
Yellow Jersey -- Lance Armstrong (Radio Shack)
Alternate: Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)
I surprise myself with this pick. It is absolutely not from the heart (that would have me pick Cadel Evans), but from the cold calculus of looking at the teams. Cycling is a team sport, and the modern Tour is the ultimate expression of that adage.
Quality, leadership, and unity will see Armstrong win his final Tour de France. Radio Shack is stacked and it is led by the master, Johan Bruyneel. It is built for one purpose. Stage wins? Nope. White, Green, Polkadot? Nope. Just win, baby.
The Shack has plenty of experience (just look at their individual
palmares) and leadership on the road--enough to handle any eventuality. And I don't see another team director pulling the strings, making the critical calls, with Bruyneel's decisiveness and clarity. It is a team that has proven that it will grind itself into a pulp for Lance. And when Armstrong has a bad day (as he will) Popo, Kloden, Horner and Levi will bail him out of trouble. Radio Shack simply has too much quality.
The favorite is Alberto Contador, but I don't think it will happen again for
el pistolero. The Tour seems to be tailor-made for him, with the climbs in the second and third week, the penultimate stage being an individual time trial, and no team time trial in this edition. However, we saw in the Giro the value of a quality team. Basso would not have ended in the pink without Liquigas dominating the final week. Astana is no Liquigas; and it ain't no Radio Shack. Another factor is that Alexander Vinokourov is a loose cannon, again, as witnessed during the Giro. I see the potential of a Spanish/Kazach rift and the loss of Contador's tranquility.
Bradley Wiggins is my alternate winner, despite my Cadel Evans fanboy status. While Team Sky worked out the kinks this spring, developing impressive cohesion in the early season and then learning to work through the Giro, Wiggins has lain low--to his benefit. Armstrong was legendary for his exclusive focus on the tour. Wiggins may well benefit from that approach.
