Final Week Thoughts on the Tour

We're heading into the final week of the Tour. Shamefully, I never finished my prediction post.

Here's a quick rundown of what I'd expected, compared to what happened. Oh, and what the hell, I'll post my remaining predictions as well.

Tony Martin

I'd hoped for a strong, podium showing for this strong German rider. He's Germany's GC hope—even though there's no TV coverage in Deutschland. The UCI and German TV don't get along.

I Predicted: Podium
Reality: Not close. He sacrificed mightily for stage wins and the Green Jersey for Cavendish. He was a beast, pace setting the peloton for unconscionable amounts of time. He proved a stud, and a sacrificial lamb.

Garmin-Cervelo

I believed the name exactly describes its nature: it is the combination of two ProTour teams.

I expected a decent (but not winning) showing in the team time trial. I predicted a stage win—by a former Cervelo (not Garmin) rider. I predicted no love for Tyler Ferrar, because I didn't believe he had anyone tough enough to lead him out against the mighty HTC machine. Where's his Renshaw? Where's his Goss? Where's the happily headbutting guy, who will take out an opponent? Where's the sting in the tail? Where's the fire?

I also predicted that Jonathan Vaughters would become more insufferable.

I Predicted: See above
Reality: They won the TTT; Ferrar won a stage; Thor wore yellow for seven days (SEVEN DAYS!) And then won an epic, historic, holy-crap-did-you-see-that? stage. And Vaughters ceased insufferability.

Crow tastes icky, even with hot sauce.

Leopard-Trek

This construct of the prodigal Luxembourgian sons gives me the willies.

Even though it has three of my favorite riders on its roster (http://wheelsuckerdiaries.blogspot.com/2011/06/jens-boonenpiratical-sorts.html, man-crush Cancellara, and all-around-tough-guy O'Grady), I expected Leopard to gnash their teeth and lamenting...something...in Paris.

I don't believe in the Schlecks. That's the bottom line.

I Predicted: Pain!
Reality: Too soon to tell. So far, they don't look like a superteam.

Cadel Evans

I love him and I believe he will wear the Yellow Jersey on the top of the podium in Paris.

He’s always ready to race. He sees a finish line, snorts, and gets on with it.

He was spot-on in Tour tune-ups. Here's what Brent Bookwalter had to say:

I’ve only raced with him this year at the Volta a Catalunya. I really admire the guy because he always shows up to race. Even when he acknowledges he’s not at his best he goes for it, like in the finish in Macerata at Tirreno-Adriatico. He was patient and bided his time until the finish.

Ivan Basso

I love this rider, for the placidity he brings to racing. Unfortunately, I don't think it will result in a podium, despite all of Italy's hopes and dreams.

Here's Basso on Basso:

When I was obsessed with having to win it, I burned myself with negativity that certainly didn’t help me. [It's] something that you follow with a smile because it is a very beautiful and fulfilling thing. I’m serene.

Serenity and the aftermath of a bloody crash on Mt Etna, and I think he is out of contention before it starts.

I Predicted: Invisible man
Reality: Too soon to tell. At this point, he's in the mix and looking strong!

Green Jersey

I thought Cavendish would be out of contention, because of all the intermediate sprints and the many, many hills.

I believed in Philipe Gilbert and the Mighty Thor.

I Predicted: Thor and Gilbert
Reality: Cavendish and Gilbert. Odds-on for Cavendish!